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Seismic Inventory Simulation and Conformance Test Based on the Monte Carlo Method-A Case Study of the Fenhe-Weihe Belt
Shao Xiaoyi,Wang Xiaoqing,Dou Aixia,Yuan Xiaoxiang
作者单位E-mail
Shao Xiaoyi Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China;Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Volcano, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China  
Wang Xiaoqing Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China wangxiaoq517@163.com 
Dou Aixia Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China  
Yuan Xiaoxiang Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China  
摘要:
Artificial earthquake catalogue simulation is one of the ways to effectively improve the incompleteness of the existing earthquake catalogue,the scarcity of large earthquake records and the improvement of seismological research.Based on the Poisson distribution model of seismic activity and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship, the Monte Carlo method which can describe the characteristics of the stochastic nature and the physical experiment process is used.This paper simulates the future seismic catalogues of the Fenhe-Weihe seismic belt of different durations and conducts statistical tests on them. The analysis shows that the simulation catalogue meets the set seismic activity parameters and meets the Poisson distribution hypothesis,which can obtain a better simulated earthquake catalogues that meets the seismic activity characteristics.According to the simulated earthquake catalogues,future earthquake trends in this region are analyzed to provide reference for seismic hazard analysis.
关键词:  Monte Carlo method  Simulated earthquake catalogues  Seismic activity  Fenhe-Weihe seismic belt
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:This project was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (No.2017YFB0504104).
Seismic Inventory Simulation and Conformance Test Based on the Monte Carlo Method-A Case Study of the Fenhe-Weihe Belt
Shao Xiaoyi,Wang Xiaoqing,Dou Aixia,Yuan Xiaoxiang
Abstract:
Artificial earthquake catalogue simulation is one of the ways to effectively improve the incompleteness of the existing earthquake catalogue,the scarcity of large earthquake records and the improvement of seismological research.Based on the Poisson distribution model of seismic activity and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship, the Monte Carlo method which can describe the characteristics of the stochastic nature and the physical experiment process is used.This paper simulates the future seismic catalogues of the Fenhe-Weihe seismic belt of different durations and conducts statistical tests on them. The analysis shows that the simulation catalogue meets the set seismic activity parameters and meets the Poisson distribution hypothesis,which can obtain a better simulated earthquake catalogues that meets the seismic activity characteristics.According to the simulated earthquake catalogues,future earthquake trends in this region are analyzed to provide reference for seismic hazard analysis.
Key words:  Monte Carlo method  Simulated earthquake catalogues  Seismic activity  Fenhe-Weihe seismic belt