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Earthquake Probability of the “Seismic Gap” on the Longmenshan Fault
Song Jin,Jiang Haikun,Meng Lingyuan,Zang Yang
作者单位
Song Jin China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China;Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China 
Jiang Haikun China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China 
Meng Lingyuan China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China 
Zang Yang China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China 
摘要:
Using the layered viscoelastic medium model, this paper calculated the coulomb stress loading effect on the Lushan epicenter generated by the Wenchuan earthquake. Then combined with the rate-state friction law proposed by Dieterich J. (1994), we obtain the probability of an MW ≥ 6.0 earthquake occurring in the vicinity of Lushan. The results show that the probability of MW ≥ 6.0 earthquake of the Lushan region in 2013 is up to 18%, indicating that the stress disturbance caused by the Wenchuan earthquake accelerated the Lushan earthquake. This paper also calculates the coulomb stress accumulation on the "seismic gap" generated by the two earthquakes of Wenchuan and Lushan, and combined with the background seismicity, gives the MW>6.0 earthquake probability of the "seismic gap". Although there may be a certain error in the results because of the Dayi earthquake, selection of the medium model parameters and background seismicity, the seismic probability of the "seismic gap" is increasing. Thus, we think destructive earthquakes are still likely to occur in the "seismic gap".
关键词:  The coulomb stress  The rate-state friction law  Earthquake probability
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:This project was sponsored by the 2017 Earthquake Regime Tracking Work of CEA (2017010118).
Earthquake Probability of the “Seismic Gap” on the Longmenshan Fault
Song Jin,Jiang Haikun,Meng Lingyuan,Zang Yang
Abstract:
Using the layered viscoelastic medium model, this paper calculated the coulomb stress loading effect on the Lushan epicenter generated by the Wenchuan earthquake. Then combined with the rate-state friction law proposed by Dieterich J. (1994), we obtain the probability of an MW ≥ 6.0 earthquake occurring in the vicinity of Lushan. The results show that the probability of MW ≥ 6.0 earthquake of the Lushan region in 2013 is up to 18%, indicating that the stress disturbance caused by the Wenchuan earthquake accelerated the Lushan earthquake. This paper also calculates the coulomb stress accumulation on the "seismic gap" generated by the two earthquakes of Wenchuan and Lushan, and combined with the background seismicity, gives the MW>6.0 earthquake probability of the "seismic gap". Although there may be a certain error in the results because of the Dayi earthquake, selection of the medium model parameters and background seismicity, the seismic probability of the "seismic gap" is increasing. Thus, we think destructive earthquakes are still likely to occur in the "seismic gap".
Key words:  The coulomb stress  The rate-state friction law  Earthquake probability