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降雨诱发浅层滑坡的多层次综合预警方法
赵斌滨1,2, 孔小昂2, 欧文浩2, 刘毅2, 杨知2
1.z中国地质大学(武汉);2.中国电力科学研究院有限公司
摘要:
汶川地震后,我国西南地区降雨诱发滑坡频繁发生。滑坡预警是滑坡灾害防治的重要手段。然而,由于许多偏远山区降雨诱发滑坡的历史资料积累不足,且边坡稳定性易受人类工程活动和环境变化的影响,统计方法难以准确实现滑坡灾害预警。由于降雨引起的变形具有滞回性,将其分为降雨预警分量和变形预警分量。选取降雨量、倾角和裂缝宽度作为监测指标。根据三维有限差分数值模拟方法计算的安全系数随降雨强度和历时变化对降雨等级进行分级,然后应用强度折减法和未确知信息理论得到多个监测点的变形等级。最后,基于系统可靠性理论,建立了滑坡综合预警等级法,给出了4个预警等级,以反映降雨过程中和降雨后安全系数的降低情况。该方法在某滑坡现场并行了应用并取得了较为满意的效果,为多指标、多层次的滑坡预警提供了一种新的方法。
关键词:  滑坡、预警、降雨、变形、未确知度理论
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助(2018YFC0809400)“极端条件下的大区域电网设施安全保障技术”;国家电网有限公司科技项目资助(GCB17201800051)“基于合成孔径雷达的地质灾害分析技术在川藏高原战略输电通道中的应用研究”.
An integrated multi-level early warning method for rainfall-induced shallow landslides
ZHAO Bin-bin1,2, KONG Xiao-ang2, OU Wen-hao2, LIU Yi2, YANG Zhi2
1.China University of Geosciences (wuhan);2.China Electric Power Research Institute Co.,Ltd.
Abstract:
Rainfall-induced landslides occurred frequently in Southwest China after the Wenchuan earthquake. Landslide early-warning are important tools for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation. However, due to the accumulation of historical data of the landslides induced by rainfall is in shortage in many remote mountain areas, and the stability of the slope easily affected by human engineering activities and environmental changes, it is difficult to realize accurately early warning of landslide hazards by statistical method. The proposed warning method was divided to rainfall warning component and deformation warning component because the deformation induced by rainfall have the characteristic of hysteretic nature. Rainfall, tilted angle and crack width were chosen as monitoring indexes. Rainfall grade level was graded according to the variation of the safety factor calculated by 3D finite difference numerical simulation method with respect to rainfall intensity and duration, and then applied the strength reduction method and unascertained information theory to obtain the deformation grade level of several monitored points. Finally, based on the system reliability theory, we established a comprehensive landslide warning level method that provides four early warning levels to reflect the safety factor reductions during and post rainfall events. The application of this method at a landslide site yielded generally satisfactory results and provide a new method for performing multi-index and multi-level landslide early warnings.
Key words:  Landslides, Early  warning, Rainfall, Deformation, Unascertained  degree theory.