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基于ETAS模型的山东长岛震群活动特征分析
王鹏, 王宝善
中国地震局地球物理研究所
摘要:
受台网布局和地震位置的影响,地震序列中往往会遗漏大量的地震,而地震目录的完整性直接影响到序列活动特征分析的可靠性。本文利用基于GPU加速的模板匹配方法对山东长岛震群2017年2月9日至8月20日期间的连续波形进行扫描,检测出15286个地震事件,是台网目录的6倍多,使完备震级从1.0级下降到0.5级。基于完整的地震目录,利用传染型余震序列(ETAS)模型分析了长岛震群的活动特征。ETAS模型中的随机成分可以作为外力(流体)作用触发地震的指标。结果表明,长岛震群外力触发的地震所占比例存在逐渐增大(由31.9%增加到63.5%)、随后下降的过程,震群发展后期主要是受地震的自激发作用影响。初步推测流体在长岛震群的发展中起一定的作用,但不同时期流体对微震活动的外因触发强度是不同的,可能与流体的渗透过程有关。
关键词:  ETAS模型  长岛震群  模板匹配  完备震级  b值  流体触发
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Seismic Activity Characteristics of Chang Island Earthquake Swarm in Shandong Province Based on ETAS Model
WANG Peng, WANG Baoshan
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration
Abstract:
Influenced by the layout of seismic network and the location of earthquakes, a large number of earthquakes are often omitted in earthquake sequence, and the integrity of earthquake catalogue directly affects the reliability of the analysis of sequence activity characteristics. In this paper, the GPU accelerated template matching method is used to scan the continuous waveforms of Chang Island earthquake swarm in Shandong Province from February 9 to August 20, 2017.We have detected 15286 earthquake events, which is more than 6 times the catalogue of the network, and the complete magnitude has been reduced from 1.0 to 0.5. Based on the complete catalogue of earthquakes, the activity characteristics of Chang Island earthquake swarm are analyzed by using the contagious aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. The random components in the ETAS model can be used as an index for triggering earthquakes by external forces (fluids). The results show that the proportion of earthquakes triggered by external forces of Chang Island swarm increases gradually (from 31.9% to 63.5%) and then decreases. The latter period of swarm development is mainly affected by the self-excitation of earthquakes. It is preliminarily inferred that fluids play a role in the development of the Chang Island swarm, but the triggering intensity of fluids to microseismicity is different in different periods, which may be related to the process of fluid permeation.
Key words:  ETAS model  Chang Island Earthquake Swarm  Matched filter technique  Magnitude of completeness  b value  Fluid triggered