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中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较
彭艳菊,张力方,吕悦军,谢卓娟
Author NameAffiliation
Peng Yanju Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100085, China 
Zhang Lifang Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100085, China 
Lu Yuejun, Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100085, China 
Xie Zhuojuan Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100085, China 
摘要:
本文首先介绍了目前地震活动性参数确定的两类方法,即潜在震源区划分法和格点空间光滑法。在格点空间光滑法中,重点介绍了高斯空间光滑法及其改进的方法,并对比分析了各种方法的优缺点及适用性;然后选择华中地区为研究区,分别采用高斯空间光滑法和潜在震源区法建立地震活动性模型计算地震年平均发生率,并利用概率地震危险性分析方法计算地震危险性,对比两种方法所得区划结果的差异并分析了引起差异的原因。研究结果表明:空间光滑法适用于中强地震活动区地震危险性或由背景地震引起的地震危险性的计算,潜在震源区划分法适用于考虑明确的发震构造的地震危险性,将空间光滑法与潜在震源区法相结合,综合考虑地震和已知构造信息是一种判断中强地震活动区地震危险性的可行方法。
关键词:  中强地震活动区  年平均发生率  格点空间光滑法  潜在震源区法
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:
Methods for Estimating Mean Annual Rate of Earthquakes in Moderate and Low Seismicity Regions
Peng Yanju,Zhang Lifang,Lu Yuejun,,Xie Zhuojuan
Abstract:
Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented, that is, the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail, and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods is made. Then, we take central China as the study region, and use the Gaussian smoothing method and potential seismic source zoning method to build seismic models to calculate the mean annual seismic rate. Seismic hazard is calculated using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to construct the ground motion acceleration zoning maps. The differences between the maps and these models are discussed and the causes are investigated. The results show that the spatial smoothing method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard over the moderate and low seismicity regions or the hazard caused by background seismicity; while the potential seismic source zoning method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard in well-defined seismotectonics. Combining the spatial smoothing method and the potential seismic source zoning method with an integrated account of the seismicity and known seismotectonics is a feasible approach to estimate the seismic hazard in moderate and low seismicity regions.
Key words:  Moderate and low seismicity regions  Annual seismic activity rate  Grid-spatially smoothing method  Potential seismic source zoning method