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An Integrated Multi-Level Early Warning Method for Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides
ZHAO Binbin1,2, KONG Xiao'ang2, OU Wenhao2, LIU Yi2, YANG Zhi2
1.Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China;2.China Electric Power Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 100055, China
摘要:
Rainfall-induced landslides have occurred frequently in Southwestern China since the Wenchuan earthquake,resulting in massive loss of people's life and property. Fortunately,landslide early-warning is one of the most important tools for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation. However, the accumulation of historical data of the landslides induced by rainfall is limited in many remote mountain areas and the stability of the slope is easily affected by human engineering activities and environmental changes, leading to difficulties to accurately realize early warning of landslide hazards by statistical methods. The proposed warning method is divided into rainfall warning component and deformation warning component because the deformation induced by rainfall has the characteristic of hysteretic nature. Rainfall, tilted angle and crack width are chosen as monitoring indexes. Rainfall grade level that contains rainfall intensity and duration information is graded according to the variation of the safety factor calculated by 3-D finite difference numerical simulation method, and then is applied using the strength reduction method and unascertained information theory to obtain the deformation grade level of several monitored points. Finally, based on the system reliability theory, we establish a comprehensive landslide warning level method that provides four early warning levels to reflect the safety factor reductions during and post rainfall events. The application of this method at a landslide site yield generally satisfactory results and provide a new method for performing multi-index and multi-level landslide early warnings.
关键词:  Landslides  Early warning  Rainfall  Deformation  Unascertained degree theory
DOI:10.19743/j.cnki.0891-4176.202001004
分类号:
基金项目:This project sponsored by National Key Research and Development Program (2018YFC0809400), "Safety Guarantee Technology of Power Grid Facilities in Large Region under Extreme Conditions" and Scientific Program of State Grid Corporation of China (GCB17201800051), "Research for application of geological hazard analysis technology on strategic transmission channel of Sichuan-Tibet Plateau based on synthetic aperture radar".
An Integrated Multi-Level Early Warning Method for Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides
ZHAO Binbin1,2, KONG Xiao'ang2, OU Wenhao2, LIU Yi2, YANG Zhi2
1.Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China;2.China Electric Power Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 100055, China
Abstract:
Rainfall-induced landslides have occurred frequently in Southwestern China since the Wenchuan earthquake,resulting in massive loss of people's life and property. Fortunately,landslide early-warning is one of the most important tools for landslide hazard prevention and mitigation. However, the accumulation of historical data of the landslides induced by rainfall is limited in many remote mountain areas and the stability of the slope is easily affected by human engineering activities and environmental changes, leading to difficulties to accurately realize early warning of landslide hazards by statistical methods. The proposed warning method is divided into rainfall warning component and deformation warning component because the deformation induced by rainfall has the characteristic of hysteretic nature. Rainfall, tilted angle and crack width are chosen as monitoring indexes. Rainfall grade level that contains rainfall intensity and duration information is graded according to the variation of the safety factor calculated by 3-D finite difference numerical simulation method, and then is applied using the strength reduction method and unascertained information theory to obtain the deformation grade level of several monitored points. Finally, based on the system reliability theory, we establish a comprehensive landslide warning level method that provides four early warning levels to reflect the safety factor reductions during and post rainfall events. The application of this method at a landslide site yield generally satisfactory results and provide a new method for performing multi-index and multi-level landslide early warnings.
Key words:  Landslides  Early warning  Rainfall  Deformation  Unascertained degree theory