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Earthquake Probability of the “Seismic Gap” on the Longmenshan Fault 
Song Jin,Jiang Haikun,Meng Lingyuan,Zang Yang


Author Name  Affiliation  Song Jin  China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China;Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China  Jiang Haikun  China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China  Meng Lingyuan  China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China  Zang Yang  China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China 

摘要: 
Using the layered viscoelastic medium model, this paper calculated the coulomb stress loading effect on the Lushan epicenter generated by the Wenchuan earthquake. Then combined with the ratestate friction law proposed by Dieterich J. (1994), we obtain the probability of an M_{W} ≥ 6.0 earthquake occurring in the vicinity of Lushan. The results show that the probability of M_{W} ≥ 6.0 earthquake of the Lushan region in 2013 is up to 18%, indicating that the stress disturbance caused by the Wenchuan earthquake accelerated the Lushan earthquake. This paper also calculates the coulomb stress accumulation on the "seismic gap" generated by the two earthquakes of Wenchuan and Lushan, and combined with the background seismicity, gives the M_{W}>6.0 earthquake probability of the "seismic gap". Although there may be a certain error in the results because of the Dayi earthquake, selection of the medium model parameters and background seismicity, the seismic probability of the "seismic gap" is increasing. Thus, we think destructive earthquakes are still likely to occur in the "seismic gap". 
关键词: The coulomb stress The ratestate friction law Earthquake probability 
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基金项目:This project was sponsored by the 2017 Earthquake Regime Tracking Work of CEA (2017010118). 

Earthquake Probability of the “Seismic Gap” on the Longmenshan Fault 
Song Jin,Jiang Haikun,Meng Lingyuan,Zang Yang

Abstract: 
Using the layered viscoelastic medium model, this paper calculated the coulomb stress loading effect on the Lushan epicenter generated by the Wenchuan earthquake. Then combined with the ratestate friction law proposed by Dieterich J. (1994), we obtain the probability of an M_{W} ≥ 6.0 earthquake occurring in the vicinity of Lushan. The results show that the probability of M_{W} ≥ 6.0 earthquake of the Lushan region in 2013 is up to 18%, indicating that the stress disturbance caused by the Wenchuan earthquake accelerated the Lushan earthquake. This paper also calculates the coulomb stress accumulation on the "seismic gap" generated by the two earthquakes of Wenchuan and Lushan, and combined with the background seismicity, gives the M_{W}>6.0 earthquake probability of the "seismic gap". Although there may be a certain error in the results because of the Dayi earthquake, selection of the medium model parameters and background seismicity, the seismic probability of the "seismic gap" is increasing. Thus, we think destructive earthquakes are still likely to occur in the "seismic gap". 
Key words: The coulomb stress The ratestate friction law Earthquake probability 



