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天津近海海域隐伏断裂地震危险性评价1
刘红艳,陈宇坤,闫成国,杨菲
Author NameAffiliation
Liu Hongyan Earthquake Administration of Tianjin MunicipalityTianjin 300201China 
Chen Yukun Earthquake Administration of Tianjin MunicipalityTianjin 300201China 
Yan Chengguo Earthquake Administration of Tianjin MunicipalityTianjin 300201China 
Yang Fei Earthquake Administration of Tianjin MunicipalityTianjin 300201China 
摘要:
以天津市近海海域断裂探测资料为基础,通过对海河断裂海域段和海一断裂的地质构造、第四纪活动性、深部构造、构造应力场与形变场以及地震活动性等的研究,综合判定了海河断裂海域段和海一断裂的活动性与构造特征。利用地震地质、历史与现今地震活动性资料,建立了按500a归算的震级-频度关系模型,根据天津地区的最大震级上限Mu与at/b的关系,计算出了海河断裂海域段和海一断裂的最大震级。采用泊松概率模型,估算出了海河断裂海域段和海一断裂未来50-200a发生地震的最大震级、发生概率以及复发周期等定量参数。
关键词:  地震危险性  定量评价  断层小区  震级-频度关系  最大震级  发震概率  复发周期
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:
Quantitative Seismic Risk Evaluation on Blind Faults in Offshore Areas of Tianjin,China1
Liu Hongyan,Chen Yukun,Yan Chengguo,Yang Fei
Abstract:
Based on faults surveying and research data in the Tianjin offshore areas,through studying tectonic structure,Quaternary activity,deep structure,stress and strain fields and seismicity in the Tianjin offshore areas,the activity and tectonic features of the faults are determined synthetically. Using seismo-geological data,and the historical and modern seismicity data, the frequency-magnitude relationship model normalized by 500a is established and based on the relationship between the upper limit of maximum magnitude Mu and at / b,the maximum magnitudes of the sea section of the Haihe river fault and the Haiyi fault are calculated. Then Poisson probability model is adopted and the quantitative parameters,such as the maximum magnitude,occurrence probability,recurrence cycle of the faults in the south Tianjin offshore areas in the coming 50 ~ 200a,are calculated.
Key words:  Seismic risk  Quantitative evaluation  Fault sub-area  Frequency-magnitude relationship  Maximum magnitude  Occurrence probability  Recurrence period