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一次全球性新的地震活动高潮
邓起东
Author NameAffiliation
Deng Qidong Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and VolcanoInstitute of GeologyCEABeijing 100029China 
摘要:
研究了自1900年以来全球地震活动的时空分布特征,阐明了20世纪中叶和21世纪初2次MW≥8.0巨大地震的活动高潮,在这2次高潮中多次发生MW≥9.0巨大地震,对比了这2次全球性地震活动高潮的特征,推测目前正经历的新的地震活动高潮还可能延续5a左右,在此期间,在全球范围内还可能发生多次MW≥8和6~7级地震。由于青藏高原,尤其是其中部巴颜喀喇断块和南部断块地震活动与印度-澳大利亚板块边界构造带苏门答腊段的地震活动密切相关,要特别注意青藏高原中部和南部发生7级左右地震的危险性。
关键词:  全球性地震活动高潮  地震危险性  青藏高原
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:
A New Upsurge in Global Seismicity
Deng Qidong
Abstract:
This paper studies the temporal and spatial distribution of great global earthquakes (MW≥ 8. 0) since 1900. We compare the two periods of upsurges of great earthquakes occurring in the middle of last century and beginning of this century. The former period took place between 1950 and 1965 during which 13 great earthquakes ( MW ≥ 8. 0 ) occurred, including three events with moment magnitude greater than 9. 0. The largest magnitude in this period reached 9. 6. The latter period starts from the beginning of this century. In less than 12 years,15 great earthquakes have attacked the world with the largest magnitude being MW 9. 1. On the basis of comparison between these two upsurges of global earthquake activity,we infer that the ongoing high level of earthquake activity may continue for another five years or so. Numerous great earthquakes (MW≥8. 0) and many large earthquakes (MW6. 0 ~ 7. 0) will occur globally in these five years. In addition,this paper also discusses the relationships between earthquake activity along the Sumatra segment of the Indian-Australia plate boundary and that in the Bayankala block in the middle of Qinghai-Tibetan plateau as well as in the blocks of the southern plateau. The results indicate that the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau,in particular its middle and southern parts,is a likely place for future earthquakes of magnitude over 7. 0.
Key words:  Global seismicity  Upsurge  Seismic risk