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陈立德, 付虹
云南省地震局,云南昆明 650224
汶川8.0级地震前兆异常对比研究结果表明,中短临异常台站和台项数与孟连地震相比少近 一半。短临阶段汶川地震异常台项增多时间出现在短临阶段早期,孟连、丽江地震出现在晚期。汶川中期异常多数开始于震前2—3年,异常台项数为11,50% 以上测值出现巨大变化,孟连中期异常开始于震前1—2年,异常台项数多达20,约30%台项于震前0.5~1年测值出现巨大变化。汶川震中及附近地下水宏观异常始于震前3年并断续延至震前1个月,2% 的面积内宏观异常占全省总数的30—50% ,绝对数少、相对数多。邢台、唐山、海城及松潘等地震宏观异常出现在震前2—3个月至发震当天,且数量多、强度大,汶川与其他强震前兆共同点是,中短期阶段均有一定数量测值呈现巨大变化的异常出现。
关键词:  汶川8.0级地震  前兆异常  对比研究
The Contrast Study of Precursor Anomalies before the MS8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake
Chen Lide, Fu Hong
Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650224, China
The contrast research results show that the number of items and stations with imminent, short and medium term precursor anomalies for the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is less than that of the Menglian earthquake. The number of anomalies and stations associated with the Wenchuan earthquake increased in the early stage of the short-term range, as opposed to the later period for the Menglian and Lijiang earthquakes. Most of the medium term anomalies occurred two to three years before the Wenchuan earthquake, when the number of anomaly stations and items was eleven, and a great change appeared in the observation values in about half of the stations (items). However, for the Menglian earthquake, medium term anomalies happened one to two years before the earthquake, the number of abnormal stations and items reached 20, and a sharp change appeared in the observation values six months to one year before the earthquake in about 30 percent of the stations or items. In the epicenter and the nearby area, the macroscopic abnormalities started 3 years before the Wenchuan earthquake and lasted intermittently until 1 month before the earthquake. Within 2 percent of the total area of the province, the macroscopic abnormalities accounted for 30 to 50 percent of the total number of anomalies of the Province. For the Xingtai, Tangshan, Haicheng, Songpan earthquakes, the macroscopic anomalies started two to three months before, or on the very day of the earthquakes. The common feature of the precursors between the Wenchuan and other strong earthquakes is the appearance of tremendous changes in a certain number of observation values of anomalies in the mid and short terms before all these earthquakes.
Key words:  Wenchuan MS8. 0 earthquake  Precursor anomalies  Contrast study