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Cheng Kueihsiang
Author NameAffiliation
Cheng Kueihsiang Integrated Research Laboratory on Prediction of Seismic Hazard, The Department of Civil Engineering, Kao-Yuan Institute of Technology, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (China) 
摘要:
关键词:  地震预测 地震特征 地震序列 强地震
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:foundation of the CWB
Tracing the Forecast of Earthquakes Based on the Seismicity Characteristics of the Chi-Chi Strong Earthquake Swarm Sequence
Cheng Kueihsiang
Abstract:
The data of earthquakes with M ≥3 0 during the 7 years from September 21, 1993 to September 20, 2000 recorded by the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB) show that there were 6 types of clear characteristics of seismicity during the Chi Chi strong earthquake swarm of September 21 These 6 types of characteristics are (1) foreshock types, (2) seismic gaps, (3) seismic bands, (4) clustering activity of foreshocks and signal shock, (5) quiescence before the main shock and (6) secondary aftershocks in the aftershock sequence. Using the procedures for analyzing the yearly strong earthquake tendency, further tracing based on the earthquake sequence characteristics, and taking the Chi Chi earthquake sequence as an example, tracing analysis of the earthquake tendency was attempted using the shorter time range of monthly rather than in a yearly time scale. An attempt was made to establish the procedures for tracing analysis of shallow focus earthquakes in the seismic belt of western Taiwan. It is hoped that this can provide an analystical method for approaching the short imminent time scale of seismometry based earthquake forecasting.
Key words:  Seismicity characteristics of earthquake sequence  Earthquake tendency analysis  Tracing forecast of earthquakes