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He Changrong
Author NameAffiliation
He Changrong Institute of Geology & Laboratory of Tectonophysics, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100029, China 
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(G1998040704)%9th Five-year Key Research Project(95-04-03-02-02)
Numerical Simulation of Earthquake Nucleation Process and Seismic Precursors on Faults
He Changrong1
Institute of Geology & Laboratory of Tectonophysics, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100029, China
To understand precursory phenomena before seismic fault sliP,this work focuses onearthquake nucleation process on a fault plane through numerical simulation.Rate and statedependent friction law with variable normal stress is employed in the analysis.The resultsshow that in the late stage of nucleation process:(1)The maximum slip velocity ismonotonically accelerating; (2)The slipping hot spot(where the slip rate is maximum)migrates spontaneously from a certain instant,and such migration is spatially continuous; (3)When the maximum velocity reaches a detectable order of magnitude(at least one orderof magnitude greater than the loading rate),the remaining time is 20 hours or longer,andthe temporal variation of slip velocity beyond this point may be used as a precursoryindicator; (4)The average slip velocity is related to the remaining time by a log-log linearrelation,which means that a similar relation between rate of microseismicity and remainingtime may also exist; (5)when normal stress variation is taken into account, time scale of such processes can be extended by 2 times.
Key words:  Fault  Earthquake nucleation  Friction  Numerical simulation